2009 Predictions


Because it’s that time of the year and my desk is organized:

The “Safe” Predictions:

1. Google Chrome gets plug-ins –Finally we’ll have access to Delicious, ShareThis, Digg, and what have you in small, lightweight plug-ins. This will help Chrome get Firefox market shares, threatening the open source browser.

2. Apple begins a roller coaster relationship with AppStore guidelines – They’ve let us have our fun with the fart applications, and now the application which monitors your girlfriends periods however this won’t be the case byMarch.  The company will feel the need to tighten ship after confirmation their fearless leader is in failing health. Plus, anger about the AppStore will create enough buzz to distract people from solely covering Steve Job’s mysterious sickness.

Then, magically, their acceptance policy will loosen in late Q3/Q4 after a couple months of backlash and the stock price have settled but remain in need for a boost.

3. Social Media gets rebranded- People are growing weary of this term. It represents this thinktank of ideas which is struggling to be monetized and fully latch on to the mainstream. I don’t think social media tools will fade away, but I expect an emergence of a new term that will help disassociate social media tools from the connotation that it can’t be monetized.

The “Out on a Limb” Predictions

1. Netbooks aren’t that great – Despite their cheap and practical nature, consumers will be sticking with their laptops and PC’s that they acquired before the recession.

2. Steve Jobs will step down as CEO – Whether he is forced or does it because he knows it’ll help protect Apple’s image, there will be a change in leadership by 2010. 2009 will not be Apple’s year of innovation and snazzy products, it’ll be the year the company matures.

3. HBO partners with Hulu – In order for this to be the case, Hulu will have to establish a premium membership fee. However, HBO will pick Hulu over Netflix’s streaming services. Additionally, Hulu will mature it’s monetization program and figure out a way to get itself on AppleTV.

4. 2009’s mantra will be “Yes, I can mature” – The deadpool will grow tremendously in 2009 but it’ll be for the best. Companies will focus on strategic business plans for monetization and improving current services before launching new projects.

5. No big acquisitions – Digg, Twitter, Facebook,and FriendFeed will remain independent. The most likely contenders for acquisition: video services (like Vimeo). But even then there wil be more interesting partnerships instead of full blown acquisitions.

It’s going to be a bumpy year.


3 Responses to “2009 Predictions”

  1. Oh my, I really hope that out on a limb #3 happens. If I had HBO on hulu I wouldn’t bother to get cable at all (and I could justify buying a mac-mini for my tv)

  2. I also really hope that hulu.com gains HBO. I would also feel morally better about pitching a dollar here or there to watch shows but only if it is available before I could finish downloading a torrent.

    Chrome is useless to me without plugins. Chrome will most likely remain useless to me unless it supports the full set of firefox plugins. I really don’t see any killer app that is going to make me switch for a little faster javascript when all the plugins firefox boosts my productivity so much.

    Great list 🙂

  3. 3 cindywaters

    Yeah – HBO was late to the iTunes game so I hope (for their sake) that they feel the pressure to be the first to do something with Hulu.

    And, Ben, I agree about the downloading torrents vs. paying for services. I don’t download as much as I used to because of Hulu, Joost, and Netflix but being on the West Coast, it’s great when torrents are available and can finish downloading before the show airs locally.

    Chrome will be THE browser if they were on Mac and supported plug-ins. Once they support plug-ins it’d be interesting to see if Google Docs popularity takes off as well – I find Google Docs is MUCH faster with Chrome, especially in comparison to OpenOffice.


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